The Simple Math of Civil War

3% or 3.5%?

And what a difference half a percentage point might make!

ProPublica (a non-profit investigative journalism outfit founded by the former editor of WSJ) just published an in-depth piece on a right wing militia outfit called the 3% ers.

It’s a fascinating take on extremism in the United States, tracing its most recent roots back to the Oklahoma City bombing, Waco, Ruby Ridge, Kyle Rittenhouse and all the usual beats of simmering white-nationalist grievance.

A few key takeaways (though I’d recommend reading the whole thing before this highly contested US election):

Most of these militia guys are cos-playing wannabes.

The founder of the 3% ers was an Uber driving drifter, searching for get-rich-quick schemes and scams until he settled on becoming the warlord of a nation-wide para-military.

He even faked his own military credentials to bolster his case.

(he’s just now been taken down from within his own ranks for “stolen valor”)

But also, some are decidedly not wannabes. They’re former spec ops guys and conventional military with weapons and counter-insurgency training.

Room clearing drills. CQB.

They’re active duty National Guardsmen.

They’re sheriffs and cops.

And that kind of infiltration into the civic sector–the very folks that are supposed to be upholding rule of law and protecting all citizens equally–should concern us all.

It’s an eerie echo of the attempted German coup a couple of years ago led by Prince Heinrich XIII (an adopted failson from an aristocratic family with fascist ambitions).

While their efforts to kidnap and kill left wing politicians failed, the coup also exposed connections to the AfD (Alternative for Germany) party, a neo-Nazi ish group that has also infiltrated the German army and police force.

It’s kinda like that scene in Fight Club where Ed Norton is going about his business in the city and he’s met with respectful nods from all the guys behind counters with black eyes and bruises who are secretly part of his clan.

Dual allegiances. All waiting for the moment the signal fires burn, and the revolution can begin from within.

This has such vastly greater potential for violence than Occupy ever did!

Or the phantom menace of Antifa. (seriously, what’s a few balaclavas and baseball bats compared to body armor and AR-15s?).

But there was something else that really got me thinking after reading that ProPublica piece–the name.

The 3% ers.

It’s a nod to a well-worn trope of the Alt-Right, that only 3% of American colonists fought in the Revolution.

The implication being, that only 3% of Americans today need to stand up to the Woke New World Order Tyranny and restore the country to its original glory as a White Christian Nation.

(N.B. I take the piss out of the self-defeating excesses of the far Left agenda elsewhere. My point here is that, when it comes to weaponized potential for violent disruption of the democratic process, the Alt-Right is leaps and bounds more activated than the “Libtards”)

It only took a few moments of noodling on the 3% er origin story for me to remember another similar statistic–3.5%.

That’s the number that Erica Chenoweth at Harvard’s Kennedy School for Government cited as the number required for civil revolution. She derived that stat from studying mostly 20th century peaceful transitions of power. She also noted that non-violent means were twice as effective as violent revolts.

This cheery little statistic has made the rounds, especially in the Greta-Thunberg/Extinction Rebellion/Sunrise Movement climate protests.

After all, when faced with seemingly overwhelming inertia for business (and politics) as usual, the notion that we don’t need to persuade 51% of the humanity to come to its senses—we only need a fraction of that–well, you can see how this 3.5% becomes a hopeful rallying cry for Progressives everywhere.

Non-violent revolution with 3.5% of the world at your back.

Or violent revolution with 3% of patriots by your side.

The parallels are uncanny.

And more than a little concerning.

Omens of Civil War.

But to understand this one that’s brewing, we’ve gotta go back to the last one that’s still stewing.

To recap a slice of high school history: In 1861, the South seceded from the Union about a bunch of economic, political and cultural squabbles, but also, slavery.

The North said No.

They fought.

The North, with its factories and railroads eventually beat the South with its cotton fields and sexier generals.

Then came Reconstruction.

That’s where slaves were freed, Historical Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs like Kamala Harris went to) sprang up. Tulsa became a haven for Black entrepreneurship (before getting burned to the ground in 1921).

For a brief moment, it seemed like the Original Sin of this country’s founding had been expunged, and we were finally on our way to that ideal City on a Hill that John Winthrop had been nattering on about.

But by most historians’ accounts, it was a little too much change too soon for the white South. Reconstruction got stopped in its tracks or repealed outright.

The backlash began.

Jim Crow laws said the loud part (Blacks aren’t people) quietly (voting restrictions, “separate but equal”).

The Klan had a national resurgence (and not just in the South) with fancy new white robes and pointy hats (originally debuted in the seminal film Birth of a Nation in 1915 cuz they looked good on black and white film, but then they got adopted IRL!).

#hateimitatesart

It wasn’t until the late 50’s to 60’s that we had a re-litigation of all of that unfinished Civil War business.

And after addressing race with the Civil Rights Voting Acts of ‘64 and ‘65, we got so fired up we kept going.

Gender rights and the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) plus Rowe.

Nature rights with the Environmental Protection Act (EPA).

A veritable alphabet soup of Progressive Progress!

…

Then Obama proved that America had finally and firmly arrived in its post-racial era

(Beyonce also helped #singleladies).

Then Trump rode down his golden escalator to Charlottesville clutching a Kenyan birth certificate.

And all hell broke loose.

Then whacked out lock downs prompted most everyone else to lose their mind.

(And a little attempted coup-thingy).

Then we gave the keys to Grandpa to drive for a while so we could all catch our breath.

Now we’re staring down the barrel of Reconstruction 2.0.

Where an angry bunch of culturally White “evangelical” Southerners (geographically distributed but fiber optically more connected than ever) are seeking to kick out the carpetbaggers, communists and queers, and restore ‘Merica to its God-given Glory.

That’s where that Project 2025 that you might have been hearing about kicks in.

Despite Trump’s public disavowals, it is 100% a MAGA joint (with a bit of help from the Old Guard Death Eaters at the Koch/Heritage foundations who simply use Trumpism as a wrecking ball for their own bare knuckles oil and gas libertarian agendas).

But look at the Project 2025 wish list, and what you see is a chapter and verse repeal of every Progressive piece of legislation from 1964 on.

Abolish any efforts to rebalance structural racism cuz it’s unfair to the Whites.

Abolish any efforts to protect sex/gender equality and reproductive rights cuz it erodes White masculinity.

#tradwives4evr

Abolish any efforts to protect water, air or soil cuz it cuts into our free market right to privatize profit and socialize externalities.

Abolish any protections of public lands cuz it’s a waste of oil, gas, lumber, and coal we could be extracting for private gain.

In sum, turn back the clock to 1950 or 1850 (it really doesn’t matter much).

And we’ll play dirty to get there if we have to. “The revolution will be bloodless if the Left allows it to be” the president of the Heritage foundation generously offered this summer.

***

So sometimes it helps to pull back a bit from hot takes on current events to take in the broader historical context we’re living in.

And without sounding too dramatic, we’re finding ourselves at the end of a Second Reconstruction.

All the Progressive gains of the ‘60s-Oughts are actively contested now, more than any point in the last half century.

We’re bitterly debating whether our efforts to find a more perfect union drive us forwards to a more sustainable and inclusive vision of this nation, or backwards to a more ethno-nationalist one.

And the difference?

0.5 percent.

In Egyptian mythology, the gods weighed human hearts on a scale balanced against a feather.

If your heart was light and joyful, you passed into the underworld to live in peace.

But if your heart was heavy and dark, you were devoured by the monstrous forever.

Today, America’s fate is hanging in that balance.

Love or fear.

All for the weight of a feather…

3% or just half a percent more.

The question for all of us becomes, which side are we on?

Which side are we on?